El Niño: what it could mean for the Chatham Islands

A very strong El Niño weather pattern is expected to influence Aotearoa New Zealand through spring and summer 2026/27. For the Chatham Islands, this may bring periods of stronger winds and changing rainfall patterns, although the effects will vary and individual weather events cannot be predicted from El Niño alone. 

What is El Niño? 

El Niño is a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It changes large-scale wind and rainfall patterns and can influence New Zealand’s weather for several months. During El Niño, the country generally experiences stronger or more frequent winds from the southwest through to the northwest. 

What might island residents notice? 

The Chatham Islands may experience more frequent strong-wind events, as well as periods of drier weather. Conditions can change quickly, and there may still be rain, storms and settled spells. Possible impacts include pressure on household and farm water supplies, faster drying of vegetation, increased fire risk, and disruption to travel, marine activities, power or communications during severe weather. 

Be prepared 

There are simple steps households, farms and businesses can take now: 

• Keep an eye on water use and check tanks, pumps and backup supplies. 
• Secure loose outdoor items and keep trees, gutters and drains maintained ahead of strong winds. 
• Review household and business emergency plans, including supplies for possible travel, power or communications disruption. 
• Take extra care with outdoor fires and machinery, and check the current fire danger and permit requirements before lighting. 
• Follow official weather forecasts, watches and warnings, particularly before travel or marine activities. 

Stay up to date through MetService, Fire and Emergency New Zealand, Earth Sciences New Zealand and local Chatham Islands channels. Planning early and checking current conditions will help residents and visitors make informed decisions as the season develops.